Summary: Recently, China's
soybean imports from Brazil hit a new weekly high. In early April, 40 - plus
shipments (2.4m tons, 1/3 of monthly processing) were procured. The 145% tariff
on US soybeans (versus 8% for Brazilian, with lower CIF) from China - US trade
friction shifted imports. Brazil, having supply edge, strengthened its trade
status. China diversifies imports and green - upgrades supply chains to handle
risks and reshape trade.
Recently, the scale of China's soybean
procurement from Brazil has hit a new high in a single week, drawing
significant attention from the international market.
According to media reports, Chinese
importers purchased at least 40 shipments of soybeans from Brazil in the first
half of April 2025, with a total procurement volume of 2.4 million tons, which
is equivalent to one-third of China's monthly soybean processing volume.
Background
This procurement scale far exceeds the
normal level. Firstly, it is affected by the China-US trade friction.
Currently, the tariff imposed by China on
American soybeans has been increased from 3% to 145%, while Brazilian soybeans
enjoy a preferential tax rate of 8% through the BRICS cooperation mechanism.
This differential tariff policy has
directly prompted Chinese enterprises to shift their purchases to Brazil.
For example, the cost, insurance and
freight (CIF) price of Brazilian soybeans is $18 to $22 lower per ton than that
of similar American products, presenting a remarkable cost advantage.
In addition, the share of American soybean
exports to China has plummeted from 38% in 2024 to less than 22% currently, and
its market share has been rapidly taken up by Brazil.
This also requires Brazilian soybeans to
have their own supply advantages.
The expected soybean output in Brazil in
2025 is 175.45 million tons, an increase of 11% year-on-year, and the export
volume is expected to rise to 107 million tons.
The expected soybean tranalysis.com/Analysis/Index#item1?KeyWordID=1ea6f8b39ff44ad4becec20c63502df5&PublisherID=b3fac7dd-9156-424c-9843-193631ebb67b' target='_blank'>export volume from
Brazil in April is 13.3 million tons, among which about 76% is destined for
China.
Through the optimization of the
"port-railway-warehousing" trinity logistics system, Brazil has
reduced the soybean transportation cycle to 49 days, which is 25% more
efficient than the route from the western United States, ensuring the stability
of the supply chain.
Previously, the price of Brazilian soybeans
increased due to the tense situation between China and the United States, but
the recent price drop has provided a window of opportunity for Chinese buyers.
Global
Pattern
This event has already shown that Brazil
has replaced the United States as China's largest soybean supplier. In 2024,
Brazil's exports to China accounted for 76% of its total export volume.
This procurement has further strengthened
Brazil's core position in the global soybean trade.
By establishing a China-Brazil agricultural
innovation fund of $5 billion, Brazil has achieved technological breakthroughs
in areas such as transgenic breeding and precision irrigation. The soybean
yield per hectare reaches 3.8 tons, which is 12% higher than that in the
Midwest production areas of the United States.
China, on the other hand, has deepened its
cooperation with Brazil through the "production area processing - targeted
supply" model. For instance, the 2-million-ton oil crushing plant newly
built by COFCO Corporation in Mato Grosso, Brazil, will be put into operation
in 2026.
Meanwhile, China is promoting the
diversification of soybean imports. It is expected to import about 10 million
tons of soybeans from South American countries such as Argentina in 2025,
further diversifying risks.
The export revenue of American soybeans to
China accounts for half of its total exports. However, this procurement boom
has caused the soybean price index of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to drop
by 14% in a single month, and about 8.5 million tons of inventory are at risk
of being unsalable.
Caleb Regan, President of the American
Soybean Association, warned that American farmers are already facing
"potential significant losses" in 2025.
China's
Response Measures
China's soybean imports are mainly used for
crushing soybean meal to meet the needs of the livestock industry.
The No. 1 Central Document in 2025 proposed
to stabilize the pig production capacity, with the target of maintaining the
normal inventory of 39 million breeding sows. At the same time, it promotes the
upgrading of the beef cattle and dairy cattle industries, and the feed demand
remains persistently rigid.
Although China's domestic soybean
self-sufficiency rate has increased to 20%, the gap between production and
demand still needs to be filled by imports.
While expanding procurement, Chinese
enterprises are also promoting the green transformation of the supply chain.
For example, COFCO Corporation signed a
procurement agreement for 1.5 million tons of "deforestation-free"
soybeans with Brazil, requiring that the soybean planting areas have not been
involved in deforestation since December 31, 2020, and ensuring sustainable
production through third-party audits.
The high tariffs imposed by China on
American soybeans may be long-term, and potential risks such as the logistics
bottlenecks (such as port congestion) and price fluctuations of Brazilian
soybeans still exist.
To this end, China is deepening its
agricultural cooperation with South American countries through the Belt and
Road Initiative and exploring emerging soybean production areas in Africa and
other regions to build a more resilient supply chain.
This large-scale procurement is not just a
short-term market behavior, but also a strategic layout for China to deal with
global trade uncertainties.
This
trend will also reshape the global soybean trade rules. With its advantages in
production capacity, cost and policies, Brazil is expected to further squeeze
the market share of the United States, while China's bargaining power as the
largest buyer will continue to increase.
The following is the recent price trend
chart of soybeans in the Chinese market. In the near future, relevant
information will soon be available on our official website. If you have an
interest in this aspect, we highly recommend that you do not overlook this
valuable opportunity.
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